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March 25, 2012 / Political Fluency

All Primaries Charted / The $50,000 Question Part VI

We’re looking at only primaries for 3 reasons:

First, caucuses have far less participants and the more data (voters) you have for statistics the more accurate of a test of the hypothesis (median income in relation to Romney’s vote share).

Second, and this is related to the first, there have been some wacky things that have happened at caucuses – Iowa’s 8-vote victory for Mitt Romney turning into a 34-vote victory for Rick Santorum, Wyoming’s caucus with 2,108 total voters which is a few hundred more than some polling samples, and Idaho not having all candidates on the ballot in certain counties which includes Romney as he won by 43%!

Third, there are only primaries from March 18th onward so it keeps the comparison apples to apples.

Here are all of the primaries that have been held and those that are scheduled to be held soon. The green highlights are home states. The other colors represent primaries that will occur on the same day.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here is the same chart in order of median household income. All results with a number – 1st, 2nd, or 3rd – are primaries that have occurred. All projections for future primaries are indicated by Win or Loss.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And to reduce the clutter, here are only the remaining primaries.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

April 3rd – Next week DC, Maryland, and Wisconsin look like primaries Romney should win relatively easily. There are then 3 weeks until the next primaries and if Romney does well here, then he will have a lot of momentum to raise money and more establishment Republicans will begin calling for the other candidates to drop out.

One additional note here: Drudge’s headline is that Santorum needs 74% of the remaining delegates. Even though delegates are awarded proportionally or winner-take-all depending on the state, Santorum needs to win about 70% of the remaining vote in a race where he is not the frontrunner among 4 candidates. Put it this way, Barack Obama – as an incumbent President and leader of the entire Democratic Party – is getting “only” 89% of the popular vote against a bunch of whack jobs who aren’t even on the ballot in every state where Obama then gets 100% of the votes. Can you imagine how unserious a candidate is that doesn’t even get on the ballot in every state?

 

April 24th – A full 30 days after his last victory in Louisiana, it’s going to be hilarious when Rick Santorum gives his version of Newt Gingrich’s embarrassing Super Tuesday speech when Gingrich spoke to a crowd in his home state of Georgia that he won with no other candidate competing against him which began with:

You know, this is amazing. (LAUGHTER) I hope the analysts in Washington and New York, who spent June and July explaining our campaign was dead…(LAUGHTER) … will watch this tonight and learn a little bit from this crowd and from this place.(APPLAUSE)

We survived the national elite’s effort to kill us in the summer because of you, because people who said, we are not going to allow the elite to decide who we are allowed to nominate.

And June and July were really hard, and it was precisely because the national elite — especially in the Republican Party — had decided that a Gingrich presidency was so frightening that they had to kill it early. But, you, you wouldn’t let them do it.

Gingrich said this as he was getting shellacked in every other state that was voting that night.

And that’s precisely what is going to happen to Santorum on April 24th as he is likely to address his home state of Pennsylvania in his only victory of the evening as he will be absolutely hammered in every other state that night. And with predicted Romney victories preceding this day, Pennsylvania may very well be a close second and even in play for him to defeat Santorum.

May 8th – Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia are all going to be interesting bellwethers for Romney in the South and Midwest in the lower income ranges. We might begin to see the tide finally turn to Romney as the candidate Republicans are falling in line with as the delegate and popular vote lead by Romney will be blatantly insurmountable by this date. And if Romney pulls off a victory in Pennsylvania two weeks prior, then we may see all three of these states go for Romney handily.

May 15th – Oregon should be a win for Romney based on income and his strength in the West with victories in neighboring states of Washington and Nevada (California is extremely likely to go for Romney). Nebraska looks like a potential win for Romney on income, but Santorum  has won the surrounding counties of the state as you can see on Sean Trende’s map.

May 22nd – Kentucky and Arkansas could be Santorum’s last hurrah if he stays in the race.

May 29th – Because a week later he is likely to lose another big state in Texas. Although this contest could be close based on the region, evangelical population, and median income, the primary is probably at a point where Romney is considered the nominee and Republicans are finally voting that way.

June 5th – And even if they aren’t voting that way, wins in California and New Jersey will net dozens more delegates for Romney than Santorum can get in Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota. It will be very surprising if Romney does not have the 1,144 delegates necessary to be declared the candidate by the end of the night.

June 26th – And a large portion of the mostly Mormon Utah’s 40 delegates are the free throws Romney is going to have if he is getting fouled desperately to stop the clock.

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