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March 13, 2012 / Political Fluency

Sweet Home Alabama / The $50,000 Question Part IV

The Alabama and Mississippi primaries are today along with the Hawaii caucus. Mitt Romney has described the two Southern states as “an away game” against Newt Gingrich and the socially conservative Rick Santorum. And he’s right because they are two of his worst states:
















It’s hard to put much weight into the polling as it has been lacking in Mississippi and some of the firms polling in Alabama are local. While some local polling firms are very accurate, I do not know enough about these firms.*

The above is supposed to be a primary-only chart. Hawaii is inserted not only because Republicans there vote today, but to show that Romney is likely to win big there and acquire the most delegates on his hardest primary day since South Carolina.

Even with the correlation of household income and Romney’s vote percentage, keep in mind that is only one variable. Politics can be very complicated. When these votes take place matters a tremendous amount. South Carolina was the “last chance” (really the first chance) to stop Romney’s momentum in January. If Alabama and Mississippi are really that close today, it just might be that Republicans are finally acting like Republicans and settling on Romney now that it is after a Super Tuesday showing that Gingrich and Santorum have no viable path to acquire the delegates necessary for the nomination.


*Increase Your Fluency: Only pay attention to polls that total at least 85% on elections and 80% on issues. Look at the Alabama State poll on this page. They have two polls conducted over the past two weeks with neither including Ron Paul who is bound to get a significant 6% or more of the vote. If that isn’t bad enough, their most recent poll shows Gingrich – 21, Romney 20, and Santorum – 17. That’s only 58% total. Even putting in 8% for Ron Paul and you have a poll with over a third undecided. That’s inane a few days before an election.


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