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September 13, 2011 / Political Fluency

The Reason Obama is Still the Favorite to Win in 2012

The 2012 Election is still Obama’s to lose. And not because Intrade has him way higher than Romney or Perry.

It isn’t because he’s going to spend a billion dollars with a B for his reelection and breaking the previous campaign record – his own in 2008 when he spent $750 million.

It is because he is the President. Yes, the bully pulpit helps and incumbents can be difficult to beat, but his real argument involves the same tactic he employed to pass his health care plan.

He’s going to throw his fellow party members under the bus.

Obama’s best argument in 2012 to win re-election is to acknowledge the likelihood that the House will remain Republican and Republicans will take back the Senate leaving only him as the check in the balance of power of single-party rule.

The American people were not pleased with Democrat control of the House Senate and Presidency in 1993-1994 and 2009-2010. Likewise, Republicans were booted from power for their single party rule from 2001-2006. The 2002 and 2004 elections were both anomalies that favored the Republicans as a war party because it was the aftermath of September 11th. Former Clinton strategist James Carville was right when he said Republicans would rue the day they won the 2004 election. The American voters were so fatigued of the Republicans that kicking them out of the House and Senate in 2006 wasn’t enough. They expanded Democrat gains in Congress and delivered the White House to them in 2008 only to turn against the Democrats in 2010 to bring the story full circle.

All of those years of single party rule happened within this past generation. Just as Obama sold his fellow Democrats on supporting a health care bill that was destined to become popular one day (but likely not in time for their reelection bids in 2010), he will also position his fellow party members in Congress as possible or even likely to lose their seats with only him left standing in the way of the dreaded Republican Rule.

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